Friends,
Below is a very insightful and informative article. Stroupe's
analysis is brilliant, on a par with what we've seen from William
Engdahl. I agree entirely with his view of 'what's going on', but I'd
like to comment on some of the attitudes he expresses.
"We are witnessing not merely the formation of some new
oil-and-gas cartel with Russia at its center, but rather the
formation of something that includes both producers and the
key consumer states of the East in an ever more cohesive de
facto confederation...
...the circle defining international energy security is now
being drawn. Inside the circle are those producer and
consumer states whose political and geopolitical affinity
for each other is the result of no mere chance occurrence
and whose energy-security interests are being strategically
served and addressed on both sides of the producer/consumer
equation."
In other words, nations are learning to work together for their
mutual benefit, producers and consumers in voluntary cooperation.
Sounds reasonable to me. A very sound way for the world to operate;
much better than imperialism.
"Almost none of the world's oil and gas producers wants to
be inordinately dependent on the US market any longer.
Additionally, the steady rise of the powerful economies of
Asia beckons oil and gas producers toward such lucrative
markets that are politically cost-free, meaning they do not
attach political demands and seek to interfere in the
domestic affairs of the producing regimes, as does the US."
What we see is that Russia is acting as a friend, while Uncle Sam
plays the bully. When you have a friend who can stand up to the
playground bully, you naturally flock around your friend.
"Rather than being merely unrelated and random events,
global developments in the energy and geopolitical spheres
over the past seven years form a distinct pattern that
bespeaks the execution of a developing strategy of a Russian
reacquisition of global power, but in concert with its
strategic partners, at the incalculable expense of the West
in general and of the US in particular."
In what currency is this 'incalculable expense" being calculated? I
think it is not 'cost of oil': no one is refusing to make fair oil
deals with the US. I believe that 'power' is the currency being
referred to. The ability of the US to play the bully is being
challenged.
"Contrary to the assumptions of conventional wisdom, the US
hasn't any longer the global leverage to shape unfolding
developments in its favor. Russia is rapidly acquiring such
leverage, and it is expertly plying that leverage against US
vulnerabilities in the energy sphere."
It is the vulnerabilities of the bully-role that are being plied.
Those need not be seen as US vulnerabilities. The US can choose to
act as a friendly member of the global community rather than
insisting on remaining a bully.
The more the US pushes its bully-imperialist role, the more the SCO
et al will be infused with hostile intent. If the US were to enter
the game of seeking mutually-beneficial deals, and take the lead in
nuclear disarmament, quite different outcomes could be produced.
The basic problem here is that the US does not act out of national
interest. Rather it pursues the interest of those who control it
from behind the scenes: a small clique of banker-financiers.
rkm
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http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HH25Dj01.html
Russia spins global energy spider's web
By W Joseph Stroupe
The vast bulk of the world's oil, gas and strategic minerals
resources either is coming under or is already under the control of
authoritarian, or less-than-democratic, or leftist, or otherwise
radical regimes either with a decidedly anti-Western political stance
and ideology or pointedly decreased sensitivities to strategic US
interests.
It is difficult to name more than a handful of resource-rich states
that are liberal democracies and that are still significantly aligned
with the West. Only Canada and Mexico come immediately to mind, and
even Canada is increasingly embracing China and the East in the
sphere of strategic energy deals and agreements.
Even those resource-rich regimes that are considered to be the
most moderate of the globe's producing states are far less closely
aligned geopolitically with the US than they were previously.
Saudi Arabia, for example, continues its "Look East" policy of
diversifying its markets away from the US. It has concluded a range
of important deals in the energy sector with China and India and is
steadily moving into closer geopolitical alignment with the rising
East.
A number of other key Middle Eastern regimes are following suit. By
and large Latin America is doing the same, as are Africa and Central
Asia. Almost none of the world's oil and gas producers wants to be
inordinately dependent on the US market any longer. Additionally, the
steady rise of the powerful economies of Asia beckons oil and gas
producers toward such lucrative markets that are politically
cost-free, meaning they do not attach political demands and seek to
interfere in the domestic affairs of the producing regimes, as does
the US.
In virtually all cases, the interests of the West and of its
multinational oil companies and big Western financial institutions
are being minimized and/or pushed out as the global trend of
nationalization, by one means or another, of the oil-and-gas sector
picks up speed.
That is occurring in Russia, which has now surpassed Saudi Arabia as
the world's largest exporter of oil, in Central Asia, the Middle East
and in Latin America. Within virtually all such regimes the lines of
separation between the top levels of political leadership and the
directorship of key corporations and industries are not only blurred
but are being obliterated. The multinational oil companies of the
West are being marginalized as a direct result.
That is the case in Russia, where in many key areas of industry
corporate directors are intimately tied to President Vladimir Putin,
having formed a close association with him long before he became
president, and many even hold key positions as upper-level Kremlin
officials, or as government ministers. Not merely coincidentally, the
key corporations the directors of which are so closely allied with
Putin are often resources-based and are also those that are
state-controlled businesses, with the Russian state holding
controlling (51% or more) interests.
To varying yet alarming degrees, the resource-rich regimes around the
globe are copying the Russian model. Resources-based corporate states
with a profound political affinity for one another and a simultaneous
collective disdain and even a hatred for US-led unipolar dominance
are proliferating around the globe.
Resource-rich Russia's mounting global leverage with the world's
other producing states and with the powerhouse economies of the East,
and its profound political affinity with such producers and key
consumer states, far outweighs the influence of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
How so? Russia is crossing the membership boundaries of OPEC to court
its most powerful members and to conclude with them joint-venture
agreements of huge consequence and importance for the future of
global oil and gas exploration and production. The West is rapidly
being pushed out of such ventures, or is being forced to take radical
reductions in the size of its stakes, and is being left out entirely
in many new ventures.
Instead, the world's producing regimes are increasingly entering key
joint ventures between themselves and in very close cooperation with
the powerhouse economies of the rising East, such as China. We are
witnessing not merely the formation of some new oil-and-gas cartel
with Russia at its center, but rather the formation of something that
includes both producers and the key consumer states of the East in an
ever more cohesive de facto confederation. This is dedicated to the
achievement of strategic energy security for those within its clearly
defined circle.
In the process, OPEC itself, as an entity, is being undermined and
marginalized. Simultaneously, the West is being forcibly cast from
the proverbial frying pan into the fire as something far more
powerful, compelling and all-encompassing than OPEC is coalescing.
The ominous rise around the globe of the resources-based corporate
state is accelerating. The implications for the West are enormous,
yet such implications are only beginning to be understood. As noted
above, such states are concluding rapidly increased numbers of
strategic agreements among themselves for the joint exploration and
production of oil and gas, and with the rapidly rising powerhouse
economies of the East, such as China and India, for the private
long-term supply of oil and gas.
The creation of such private pools of oil and gas for the consumption
only by specific economic powers in the East and select economies of
the West is also a new development that carries with it profound
implications for the West.
In essence, the circle defining international energy security is now
being drawn. Inside the circle are those producer and consumer states
whose political and geopolitical affinity for each other is the
result of no mere chance occurrence and whose energy-security
interests are being strategically served and addressed on both sides
of the producer/consumer equation.
Some of the economies of the West, such as Germany, are being
included within the developing circle. Outside the circle are those
economies of the West that are to be left out of the growing
international energy-security arrangements currently being
constructed, as alluded to above. Interestingly, and as a profound
new development, it isn't the United States that defines the path and
scope of the circle. Instead, it is Russia and its strategic partners
who are defining it.
Because Russia's leaders adroitly positioned the Russian Federation
to capitalize massively on global energy developments, it is the
state that inherited the unique ability to shape global developments
as they unfold. Russia is shaping important developments among the
world's key producing and consuming powers. They are being shaped
contrary to the strategic interests of the United States, as noted
above. The US is also shaping developments, foolishly handing Russia
and the East ever more global leverage. By incessant strategic
blunders, the US has isolated itself internationally and fanned the
fires of global anti-Americanism, which increasingly engulf the very
regions where its own resources-based strategic interests lie.
An entire array of fundamental global developments as respect
strategic resources is quite literally changing the landscape of the
traditional global energy order. With regard to energy and energy
security, a new global order is emerging. The US-backed liberal, open
global oil market order is beset by an accelerating proliferation of
private, state-to-state long-term agreements and contracts concluded
within the circle Russia and its partners are defining.
This is creating increasing numbers of private pools of oil and gas
dedicated only to serving the energy-security interests of the circle
of private participants. Along the way, Russia's export monopoly of
the oil and gas that still flows outside the circle to the West
continues to grow, further ensuring its mounting global leverage.
Rather than being merely unrelated and random events, global
developments in the energy and geopolitical spheres over the past
seven years form a distinct pattern that bespeaks the execution of a
developing strategy of a Russian reacquisition of global power, but
in concert with its strategic partners, at the incalculable expense
of the West in general and of the US in particular.
Contrary to the assumptions of conventional wisdom, the US hasn't any
longer the global leverage to shape unfolding developments in its
favor. Russia is rapidly acquiring such leverage, and it is expertly
plying that leverage against US vulnerabilities in the energy sphere.
W Joseph Stroupe is editor of Global Events Magazine online at
http://www.GeoStrategyMap.com. He has authored a new book on the
implications of ongoing energy geopolitics titled Russian Rubicon -
Impending Checkmate of the West.
(Copyright 2004-06 W Joseph Stroupe.)
--
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