cj#264> EDITORIAL: Bosnia Update


Richard Moore


                     Bosnia Update -- 13 September 95

* * *

The timing was eerie of "cj#259> Editorial: Bosnian Prospects".  It seems
that many of the predictions came true within a just few days or hours of
its publication.

The primary thesis of the editorial was that the U.S./German/Nato operation
in the Balkans was being carried out as an upgraded version of the Desert
Storm campaign.  Several parallels were noted, and the predictions were
simply exptrapolations based on the earlier precedent.

What we've seen subsequently are even closer parallels to Desert Storm, so
that the thesis, I belive, is no longer in doubt.  At the end, you will
find several relevant excerpts from recent newspaper accounts.  (Note also
the "Germany Alert" piece <cj#262>, which sheds light on Croatia's retaking
of Krajina, and the Jewish Frontier excerpt <cj#263>, which goes into the
background of the region.)

Nato has succeeded in gaining a free hand from the U.N., and it has
immediately escalated the conflict to general attacks throughout Croatia.
No effort is being made to destroy the heavy guns around Sarajevo, but
instead a terror campaign is being carried out against the Bosnian Serbs
generally.  This is just as in Desert Storm, where no attempt was made
(until the very end) to oust Iraq from Kuwait.

Contrary to most media reports, which carry bombing of anti-aircraft sites
as the only actions in the conflict, there is in fact a general offensive
against Bosnian Serbs on several fronts.  The Croatian and Bosnian armies
are both on the offensive.

>>From the Bosnian Serb -- and the Russian -- perspective, a general
offensive against the Serbs began with Croatia's blitzkrieg invasion of
Krajina, and is now being pressed forward with the assistance of Nato, with
the Luftwaffe in reserve, and with the U.S. contributing high-tech
weaponry.  These are hardly the circumstances in which the Serbs would feel
motivated to remove their threat to Sarajevo.  They fear, and rightly so,
that Croatia would use Sarajevo as a base from which to expand its

* * *

There are important differences between the Bosnian and Gulf operations
that should be noted.  Recall that Grenada was the first experiment in
modern blitzkrieg, Panama introduced a larger scale of operation, and the
Gulf introduced the tactic of internationalization.  What's new with Bosnia
is the fact that the "target" has allies.  Grenada, Panama, and Iraq each
had no allies -- they were lone ducks which could be picked off without
external entanglements.

But the Bosnian Serbs are very closely linked to Serbia (which in turn is
closely allied with Russia), and have historically relevant connections
with Macedonia, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Ukraine.  Russia is beginning
relief flights to Belgrade, so that Russia will soon be actively operating
in the conflict.  Potentially allied with Bosnia and Croatia are Germany,
Albania, Turkey, Iran, and Jordan.

The more the conflict escalates, the more flagrant the attacks on the
Serbs, and the more the media continues to mis-report events, the greater
will become the frustration and fear experienced by the Serbs' natural

Already Yeltsin has identified the operation as a "testing ground" for how
Nato plans to rule Europe.  He didn't use the phrase "New World Order", but
that's what he's talking about.  With an understanding of the precedent
being set, and a visceral connection with the Serbs, these allies will feel
increasingly obliged to lend a hand.

* * *

What then, is the NWO game plan?  This operation was entered into with all
guns blazing, and full knowledge of the line-up of potential allies for the
Serbs.  Will the conflict be skillfully limited to the territory of Bosnia?
Are there contingency plans for escalation beyond those borders?

There must be such contingency plans, otherwise Serbia could throw the
whole operation into disarray simply by actively joining the conflict -- an
eventuality that can't be dismissed out of hand.  The architects of Desert
Storm, who have been closely advising the Croatians and Bosnians, certainly
have the various options modelled on their computers, and have played out
all the scenarios.

If Serbia were to join the fray, the next level of escalation seems
obvious.  The Croatian and Bosnian armies would be fully mobilized, and
would be supplied by Nato.  This would be easily justifiable by the media,
based on the threat posed to stability by "Serbia's reckless escalation".
You'd soon have a full scale war carried out primarily in the territory of
Bosnia, involving all these forces.

But it would be a grossly unbalanced conflict, with air support, high-tech
intelligence, and cruise missles available to only one of the sides.  The
NWO is well-prepared for that first increment of escalation.

And for any other conceivable escalation, the U.S./German/Nato alliance can
incrementally increase their participation, including German ground forces,
American air power (Desert Storm style), and nuclear weapons, especially if
Russia joins in.  In the case increased ground forces are required, Turkey
would be a likely candidate to contribute "expendable" manpower, Iran

>>From a military point of view, the Nato Alliance can play at any level, up
to and including a regional war involving Russia, Iran, Turkey, and
everyone else we've mentioned.  At each stage, there'd be the possibility
of stabilization, or of further escalation.

The game plan seems to be to get the Muslims to fight the Slavs, with Nato
and the U.S. acting as gods -- determining the outcome of battles -- from
the sky.

>>From the Russian perspective, they are facing an "appeasement" scenario.
We all learned from the experience with Hitler that once you start
appeasing fascist aggressors, there's no stopping them.  Are Russia and
Serbia supposed to abandon the Bosnian Serbs in order to achieve "peace in
our time"?  Are the fully aroused Bosnian and Croatian fascist forces
likely to avoid further provocations?  Would Russia sacrifice Serbia?
Would Serbia be the turning point, as Poland was in WWII?

At the end of WWII, a frequent German question to Americans was "Why don't
you turn us around, and help us defeat the Russians?"  After 50 years, have
the Germans have finally gotten an affirmative response?

The situation in the Balkans appears to be unstable, and capable of
escalating rapidly.  There are close parallels with conditions preceding
the outbreak of WWI.  The recent actions of Nato are not designed to
increase the level of stability.

* * *

With the Military Branch of the NWO in full battle gear, what is the
Propaganda Branch up to?  It's been on the job right along, focusing
attention on Serbian atrocities, ignoring attacks and atrocities by the
other side, etc.  But with the Krajina invasion, and the cruise-missle
escalation, the propaganda operation has been tightened down.  "The Truth"
is now announced daily by American "mediator" Richard Holbrooke.
Independent corroboration of events is impractical, and Serbian and Russian
pronouncements are "obviously" non-objective.

As escalation occurs, given the Gulf precedent, we can expect less and less
information about actual operations, increasing use of staged sound bites
and selected military footage, and extensive demonization material against
the enemy of the day.  Just as in the Gulf, we can expect Hobrooke and
others to lie about the scale and targets of the bombing, portraying
indiscriminate puntive strikes as "precision" actions against military
targets.  Hobrooke's job is to provide propaganda cover for the operation,
not to inform the public.


Here are some brief excerpts from recent newspapers:


        Meanwhile, Peter Galbraith, the influential U.S. ambassador to
        Croatia, rejected British and Serbian charges that Croatia is guilty
        of "ethnic cleansing."

        He told the BBC on Wednesday that "ethnic cleansing is a practice
        supported by Belgrade and carried out by Bosnian and Croatian Serbs,
        forcefully expelling local inhabitants and using terror tactics." He
        added that the Croatian military success could prove to be a positive
        step in resolving the conflict through negotiations...

The Guardian Weekly, 13 August

        ...UN relief officials said up to 200,000 Serbs clogged the roads
        into northern Bosnia

        ...Zagreb is not worried about international isolation and
        "The diplomats we're in contact with are impressed by the rapidity
        and efficiency of our operation"...

The Guardian, 29 August

        37 die in attack on Sarajevo 'safe area'...

The European, 6 September

        German political and public opinion is swinging in favour of a
        more forceful military approach to stop the killing in Bosnia,
        despite Bonn's reluctance to become embroiled in full-scale
        ground troop deployment...

        ...In Belgrde there is widespread and defiant belief that the Serbs
        have been unjustly punished and that the massacre of civilians on
        28 August in Sarajevo was staged by Bosnian Moslems to provke the
        subsequent armed intervention.

The (London) Times, 8 September

        ...Yeltsin said that Nato had no United Nations mandate to carry
        out prolonged attacks against the Serbs... unless Nato's
        intervention was halted, the fighting could trigger "a century-long
        war which will engulf other countries".

        ..."How is it," he asked, "that when the Muslims attack no sanctions
        are applied against them?  The same thing happens when the Croats
        are on the offensive".

The Guardian, 9 September

        Serb nationalist leaders accepted for the first time that [Bosnia]
        would continue to exist within its pre-war borders.

        ...The agreement was hailed by Richard Holbrooke, the United States
        mediator, who dominates the renewed peace effort, as a milestone in
        the search for peace.

        ...Nato to continue punitive air strikes against Bosnian Serbs
        because of further mortar attacks on Sarajevo.

The Guardian, 11 September

        ...The Bosnian Serb army said many people had been killed and wounded
        in the "massive" attacks.

        ...Nato has consistently targeted the Serbs' integrated air
        defence system.

        Gen Mladic, ruthless and wily, in a move clearly aimed at sowing
        dissent within Nato ranks over the merits of maintaining the air
        campaign, promised to meet other demands.  he offered to open relief
        routes into the Bosnian capital, pledged not to fire on Sarajevo
        unless provoked, and called for truce talks.

        ...Yesterday Nato planes bombed Bosnian Serb positions outside Tuzla
        for about 45 minutes, apparently in retaliation for Serb shelling of
        the UN-occupied Tuzla airporet.  The shelling followed a Bosnian

The (London) Times, 12 September

        ...Nato insisted that it had justified in using 13 Tomahawk missles...

        ...More airstrikes were launched yesterday and America prepared to send
        six F117 Stealth bombers, which can evade radar, to Italy for use in

        Bosnian government forces meanwhile seized the oppportunity to launch
        several offensives in central Bosnia...

        Mr. Kozyrev [Russian]: "There is an impression that Nato under the
        disguise of statements about its commitment to a political solution,
        is in fact turning the long-suffering land of Bosnia into a testing
        site for imposing it 'new role' in European and internatinal

        Mr Claes [Nato Secretary-General] denied that Sunday's attack had
        been an escalation of the air campaign. [!]

        The Tomahawk cruise missle, whose destructive pedigree was witnessed
        so publicly during the Gulf War in 1991 and against Iraq's
        intelligence headquarters in June 1993, has now made its debut in

The European, 13 September

        ...The allies are hitting storage and ammunition depots, repair
        facilites, and communiations and control centres but avoiding
        Bosnian Serb guns to give the Serbs the chance to withdraw them.

        ... Some Serb-held parts, notably Grbavica, are just 300 meteres from
        the city's heart.  A pullout would leave Serbs defenceless.

        MLadic has insisted that he cannot withdraw weapons without UN
        guarantees that Serb areas will not be attacked by Bosnian
        government forces...

Irish Times, 13 September

        ...Nato said the strikes would be stepped up.  "The target list
        has been expanded," said Group Capt Trevor Murray, head of air
        operations for Nato's southern command in Naples, Itlay.  He said
        Nato would continue its raids in a "graduated" way until Bosnian
        Serbs complied with UN demands to pull back their siege guns.

        ...Russia was urgently investigating a reported secret memorandum
        agreed last month between the United Nations and Nato, which laid
        the basis for the current bombing campaign.

        "It causes us great regret and concern that this memorandum was
        not presented or discussed with the Russian side," he said.

        ...In Croatia, state television reported that Bosnian Croats had
        captured large swatches of land in western bosnia, including the
        town of Sipovo and strategic mountain tops en route to the
        Serb-held town of Jajce.