How might this figure into "the China question" ? -----Original Message----- From: •••@••.••• [SMTP:•••@••.•••] Sent: Monday, June 01, 1998 7:39 PM To: •••@••.••• Subject: Taiwan/China Global Intelligence Update Red Alert June 2, 1998 Taiwanese Official Warns of Chinese Military Threat Bucking the common impression that relations are slowly improving between Taiwan and mainland China, Taiwan's national intelligence service director on Monday warned of a growing Chinese military threat to Taiwan. In a speech at the National Chengchi University, Taiwan's National Security Bureau chief, Yin Tsung-wen, said that the collapse of the Soviet Union had allowed China to redeploy its troops to the coastal provinces opposite Taiwan. Yin said that, since the early 1990s, Chinese military training and drills had focused on the potential invasion of Taiwan. He warned that China was also attempting to develop its electronic warfare capability. Yin also said that Taiwan was aware of a large number of Chinese operatives in on the island and, though there were no plans to round them up, they were under constant observation. Despite the fact that Taiwanese business officials and diplomats are cautiously pursuing expanded ties with China, Taiwan's defense and intelligence community remain unconvinced of China's alleged lack of ability or desire to pursue reunification by military means. Yin's comments add weight to the assessment in our March 10 Global Intelligence Update (http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/031098.html) that Taiwan continues to brace for any Chinese aggression, possibly without the U.S. carrier cavalry to ride to Taiwan's aid. Yin's rare public address occurs as the U.S. is evaluating its deployment around Asia. Washington is drawing down forces in the Persian Gulf, and the India/Pakistan escalation and Indonesia collapse are occupying its attention. Washington is also facing Chinese protests that the revised U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines have been extended to include Taiwan. Finally, President Clinton will soon travel to Beijing, marking the apparent recovery of U.S.-Chinese relations in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. Despite rapidly building up its own defensive capabilities, Taiwan is not ready to stand alone, and so is attempting to remind Washington that the 49-year standoff between the island and the mainland remains unresolved and volatile. ___________________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at http://www.stratfor.com/mail/, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to •••@••.••• ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR Systems, Inc. 3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500 Austin, TX 78731-4939 Phone: 512-454-3626 Fax: 512-454-1614 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: •••@••.•••
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