greetings from wexford…

2005-03-31

Richard Moore

Friends,

Thanks for your many responses to the last few postings.
Several of you volunteered to review the manuscript, which is
much appreciated. I count about 25 pre-publication orders,
which is a big help (thanks!), but not enough to cover publication
costs. We'll be thinking of other funding sources and may ask
for some contributions, but not until we are more sure of the
exact costs. We haven't selected our print-on-demand publisher
yet.

This Saturday I'll be attempting to facilitate my first
harmonization session!!  I'm reading over the Dynamic
Facilitation manual in preparation. The venue is a gathering
of activists in Dublin, who are seeking "new directions for
activism". Seems like an ideal experimental opportunity. Wish
me luck!

By serendipity, an old friend from France is arriving in
Dublin on Sunday evening for a visit. So I may be travelling
for a few days. Hence, I'll be out of email contact for a
while. I'll report back on the session when I return.

Below is an interesting take on the Iranian situation.

all the best,
rkm


--------------------------------------------------------
From: "Janet M Eaton" <•••@••.•••>
To: •••@••.•••
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2005 00:33:39 -0400
Subject: The Iranian Threat: The Bomb or the Euro? 
Reply-to: •••@••.•••

=================================


This article appeared earlier on the website of the Arabic
Media Internet Network. http://amin.org

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article8354.htm

The Iranian Threat: The Bomb or the Euro?

By Dr. Elias Akleh

03/24/05 "AMIN" - - Iran does not pose a threat to the United
State because of its nuclear projects, its WMD, or its support
to "terrorists organizations" as the American administration
is claiming, but in its attempt to re-shape the global
economical system by converting it from a petrodollar to a
petroeuro system. Such conversion is looked upon as a flagrant
declaration of economical war against the US that would
flatten the revenues of the American corporations and
eventually might cause an economic collapse.

In June of 2004 Iran declared its intention of setting up an
international oil exchange (a bourse) denominated in the Euro
currency. Many oil-producing as well as oil-consuming
countries had expressed their welcome to such petroeuro
bourse. The Iranian reports had stated that this bourse may
start its trade with the beginning of 2006. Naturally such an
oil bourse would compete against London's International
Petroleum Exchange (IPE), as well as against the New York
Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), both owned by American
corporations.


Oil consuming countries have no choice but use the American
Dollar to purchase their oil, since the Dollar has been so far
the global standard monetary fund for oil exchange. This
necessitates these countries to keep the Dollar in their
central banks as their reserve fund, thus strengthening the
American economy. But if Iran — followed by the other
oil-producing countries — offered to accept the Euro as
another choice for oil exchange the American economy would
suffer a real crisis. We could witness this crisis at the end
of 2005 and beginning of 2006 when oil investors would have
the choice to pay $57 a barrel of oil at the American (NYMEX)
and at London's (IPE), or pay 37 Euros a barrel at the Iranian
oil bourse. Such choice would reduce trade volumes at both the
Dollar-dependent (NYMEX) and the (IPE).

Many countries had studied the conversion from the ever
weakening petrodollar to the gradually strengthening petroeuro
system. The de- valuation of the Dollar was caused by the
American economy shying away from manufacturing local products
— except those of the military -, by outsourcing the American
jobs to the cheaper third world countries and depending only
on the general service sector, and by the huge cost of two
major wars that are still going on. Foreign investors started
withdrawing their money from the shaky American market causing
further devaluation of the Dollar.

The keen observer of the money market could have noticed that
the devaluation of the American Dollar had started since
November 2002, while the purchasing power of European Euro had
crept upward to reach nowadays to $1.34. Compared to the
Japanese Yen the Dollar had dropped from 104.45 to 103.90 yen.
The British pound climbed another notch from $1.9122 to
$1.9272.

Economic reports published at the beginning of this month
(March) had pointed towards the deep dive of the American
economy and to the quick rise of the deficit up to $665.90
billion at the end of 2004. The worst is still to come. These
numbers worried the international banks, who had sent some
warnings to the Bush administration.

In its economical war Iran is treading the same path Saddam
Hussein had started when he, in 2000, converted all his
reserve from the Dollar to the Euro, and demanded payments in
Euro for Iraqi oil. Many economists then mocked Saddam because
he had lost a lot of money in this conversion. Yet they were
very surprised when he recuperated his losses within less than
a year period due to the valuation of the Euro. The American
administration became aware of the threat when central banks
of many countries started keeping Euros along side of Dollars
as their monetary reserve and as an exchange fund for oil
(Russian and Chinese central banks in 2003). To avoid
economical collapse the Bush administration hastened to invade
and to destroy Iraq under false excuses to make it an example
to any country who may contemplate dropping the Dollar, and to
manipulate OPEC's decisions by controlling the second largest
oil resource. Iraqi oil sale was reverted back to the
petrodollar standard.

There is only one technical obstacle concerning the use of a
euro- based oil exchange system, which is the lack of a
euro-denominated oil pricing standard, or oil 'marker' as it
is referred to in the industry. The three current oil markers
are U.S. dollar denominated, which include the West Texas
Intermediate crude (WTI), Norway Brent crude, and the UAE
Dubai crude. Yet this did not stop Iran from requiring
payments in the euro currency for its European and Asian oil
exports since spring 2003.

Iran's determination in using the petroeuro is inviting in
other countries such as Russia and Latin American countries,
and even some Saudi investors especially after the
Saudi/American relations have weakened lately. This
determination had also invited an aggressive American
political campaign using the same excuses used against Iraq:
WMD in the form of nuclear bomb, support to "terrorist"
Lebanese Hezbollah organization, and threat to the peace
process in the Middle East.

The question now is what would the American administration do?
Would it invade Iran as it did Iraq? The American troops are
knee-deep in the Iraqi swamp. The global community — except
for Britain and Italy- is not offering any military relief to
the US. Thus an American strike against Iran is very unlikely.
Iran is not Iraq; it has a more robust military power. Iran
has anti-ship missiles based in "Abu Mousa" island that
controls the strait of Hermuz at the entrance of the Persian
Gulf. Iran could easily close the strait thus blocking all
naval traffic carrying gulf oil to the rest of the world
causing a global oil crisis. The price of an oil barrel could
reach up to $100. The US could not topple the regime by
spreading chaos the same way it did to Mussadaq's regime in
1953 since Iranians are aware of such a trick. Besides
Iranians have a patriotic pride of what they call "their
bomb".

America has resorted to instigate and encourage its military
bastard, Israel, to strike Iranian nuclear reactors the way it
did to Iraq. Leaked reports had revealed that Israeli forces
are training for such an attack expected to take place next
June. Israel is afraid of an Iranian bomb. Such an "Islamic"
bomb would threaten Israel's military hegemony in the Middle
East. The bomb would extract some Israeli concessions and
would create an arm race that would gobble a lot of Israeli
defense expenditure. Further more the bomb would force the US
to enter into negotiations with nuclear Iran that may limit
Israeli expanding ambitions.

Iran had invested a lot of money and effort to obtain nuclear
technology and would never abandon it as evident in its
political rhetoric. Unlike Iraq Iran would not keep quiet of
Israel strikes its nuclear facilities. Iran would retaliate
aggressively which may lead to the destabilization of the
whole region including Israel, Gulf States, Iraq, and even
Afghanistan.

Dr. Elias Akleh is an Arab writer of Palestinian descent, born
in the town of Beit-Jala. Currently he lives in the US.

This article appeared earlier on the website of the Arabic
Media Internet Network. http://amin.org

© 2005 Arabic Media Internet Network — Internews Middle East .
 All rights reserved. You may republish under the following
conditions: An active link to the original publication must be
provided. You must not alter, edit or remove any text within
the article, including this copyright notice.
-- 

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Richard Moore (rkm)
Wexford, Ireland

"Escaping The Matrix - 
Global Transformation: 
WHY WE NEED IT, AND HOW WE CAN ACHIEVE IT ", somewhat current draft:
    http://www.ratical.org/co-globalize/rkmGlblTrans.html
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